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Jeu d’argent – spéculatif - sur le zinc - https://dev.medias-presse.info
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De toutes les matières premières, le zinc n’est certainement pas la plus glamour mais du moins l’une des plus utiles. 4e métal le plus produit sur terre, il est souvent associé au cuivre et au plomb. La moitié du zinc mondial est associé au fer pour la galvanisation anticorrosive. 17 % sert à la fabrication du bronze et du laiton, 17 % est allié à l’aluminium et au cuivre pour faire le zamak, 6 % sert en chimie, 6 % pour des produits semi-finis en zinc et 4 % à un autre usage. Alors que la production mondiale ne dépassa les 2 millions de tonnes qu’après la seconde guerre mondiale, elle dépassa les 4 millions en 1965, les 5 millions en 1969, les 6 millions en 1980, les 7 millions en 1985, les 8 millions en 1999, les 10 millions en 2005, les 11 millions en 2007, les 12 millions en 2009 et les 13 millions en 2012.

Le cours du zinc, qui s’était apprécié de 60 % en 2016, vient de battre un record de dix ans. En 2015, Glencore, alors premier producteur mondial du métal mou, a décidé de diviser sa production par trois pour soutenir le prix et allonger la durée de vie de ses réserves. Avant l’été, une étude de McKinsey estimait à dix-huit ans la durée de vie des réserves mondiales économiquement exploitables, et seulement sept ans en cas de hausse de la demande de 10 %. Sur les six premiers mois de 2017, la hausse était de 6 %. Entre mai 2017 et octobre 2017, la hausse était de 38 %. Sur un an, elle est de 29 %. Sur trois ans, de 42,6 %. Sur 5 ans, de 70 %. Depuis 1994, de 347 % ! Après avoir atteint un sommet cette année à 3.370 $ la tonne, le zinc se maintient à un niveau haut et était côté au 13 novembre à 3.242 $. On est loin cependant des records des années cinquante : 6000 $ la tonne en 1950 et jusqu’à 7500 $ en 1951, avant le grand effondrement des années 1955-1965, la nouvelle hausse à 6000 $ en 1975 et l’effondrement des cours (moins de 100 $ la tonne en 1986).

Premier producteur mondial de zinc, la Chine en est également le premier consommateur. Le tableau ci-dessous des dix premiers producteurs mondiaux de zinc sur les 50 dernières années donne l’aperçu le plus complet de la question… (entre parenthèses, le % de la production mondiale) :

Rang 1964 1975 1984
1 CANADA (16) CANADA (20) CANADA (17)
2 ETATS-UNIS (13) URSS (17) URSS (14)
3 URSS (12) AUSTRALIE (8) AUSTRALIE (11)
4 AUSTRALIE (9) ETATS-UNIS (7) PEROU (8)
5 PEROU (6) PEROU (6) CHINE (5)
6 MEXIQUE (6) MEXIQUE (5) MEXIQUE (4)
7 JAPON (5) JAPON (4) JAPON (4)
8 POLOGNE (4) POLOGNE (3) ETATS-UNIS (3)
9 CONGO (3) COREE NORD (3) ESPAGNE (3)
10 ITALIE (3) GROENLAND (2) SUEDE (3)

Rang 1994 2004 2014
1 CANADA (15) CHINE (25) CHINE (38)
2 CHINE (15) AUSTRALIE (14) AUSTRALIE (11)
3 AUSTRALIE (14) PEROU (12) PEROU (10)
4 PEROU (10) CANADA (8) ETATS-UNIS (6)
5 ETATS-UNIS (9) ETATS-UNIS (8) INDE (5)
6 MEXIQUE (5) IRLANDE (5) MEXIQUE (5)
7 IRLANDE (3) MEXIQUE (4) BOLIVIE (3)
8 BRESIL (3) KAZAKHSTAN (4) KAZAKHSTAN (3)
9 SUEDE (2) INDE (4) CANADA (3)
10 ESPAGNE (2) SUEDE (2) IRLANDE (2)

Hristo XIEP

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